Newco NewsJuly 16, 2010
Published by
Newco Grain Ltd.
Box 717
Coaldale, Alberta
T1M 1M6Phone 403-345-3335
Fax 403-345-2040
Toll Free 1-800-661-2312
Bentley office 1-877-748-2810
Sask. Crop Report for July 12, 2010...
Saskatchewan producers have 16 per cent of the 2010 hay crop cut and 10 per cent baled or put into silage, according to Saskatchewan Agriculture's weekly Crop Report.
The hay crop quality is rated as 31 per cent excellent and 49 per cent good. Haying has progressed furthest in the south, where 22 per cent of the crop has been cut. Rain is slowing progress, and thunderstorms continue to move across the province.
Cropland topsoil moisture is rated as 38 per cent surplus, 60 per cent adequate and two per cent short. Topsoil moisture on hay land and pasture is rated as 23 per cent surplus, 75 per cent adequate and two per cent short.
Some warmer weather has helped advance crops; however, most are still one to two weeks behind normal in development. Sixty-two per cent of the province's fall-seeded cereals are at a normal stage of development, but 67 per cent of the spring-seeded cereals, 66 per cent of the oilseeds and 58 per cent of the pulses are behind normal in development.
Eighty-two per cent of the winter wheat, 87 per cent of the fall rye and 91 per cent of the triticale are in good to excellent condition. Seventy-nine per cent of the spring wheat, 82 per cent of the durum, 78 per cent of the oats, barley and flax, 73 per cent of the canola, 83 per cent of the mustard, 76 per cent of the lentils, 77 per cent of the peas, 77 per cent of the canaryseed and 89 per cent of the chickpeas are in good to fair condition.
The majority of crop damage is caused by flooding, hail and wind. Leaf diseases, root rot and gophers are also causing damage. Grasshoppers are causing crop damage in areas in the south.
Farmers are busy haying, scouting fields and trying to control crop disease. Rain and wet fields continue to make field operations difficult.
Pasted from <http://www.agriculture.gov.sk.ca/crprpt100715>
The next Alberta crop report will be released in July 20.
Manitoba
Southwest Region - Many of the crops are rebounding from the moisture stress and have improved significantly in the past week. Majority of the early seeded cereal crops are done flowering. Later seeded cereal crop development ranges from tillering to starting to head.
Northwest Region - Majority of cereals ranges in development from flag leaf to flowering. Corn is advancing quickly with the warmer temperatures.
Central Region - Crops are progressed nicely. Spring cereals are into the milk to early dough stage with the crops in the Red River Valley being more advanced than in the western part of the region. Most flax fields are blooming. Warm season crops like corn, soybeans, field beans and sunflower are doing very well as they enter the flowering stage of development. Winter cereals are turning color and maturing.
Eastern Region - Crop staging throughout the northern areas of the region are variable while crop uniformity is better in the southern areas where less precipitation has fallen throughout the season to date. The crops displaying better yield potential are improving weekly due to dry conditions and moderate to warm temperatures.
Barley is the most advanced with fields headed out. Spring wheat and oat fields are about 70 to 100% headed out.
Interlake Region - Cereal crops are headed. Warm season crops like corn, soybean and sunflower are advancing quickly as a result of sunshine and warmer temperatures. Soybeans are showing excellent recovery from excess moisture stress. Hay harvest progress has been slow as field conditions are extremely wet. Progress is noticeable across the region; however, most harvest is on high ground with wet spots being avoided. Harvest delays will cause reduced forage quality as the crop continues to mature.
http://www.gov.mb.ca/agriculture/crops/cropreports/pdf/cr.pdf
Potash prices to hit two-year low, says Goldman Sachs ...
Potash prices are poised for their weakest quarter in more than two years and will, like those of phosphates, not improve significantly until at least 2013, Goldman Sachs has said.
The investment bank, placing nitrogen as the only one of the three major nutrients placed for price rises, acknowledged that the autumn fertilizer season may prove a strong one for volumes, thanks to a knock-on effect from the favourable spring planting conditions.
"An early planting season may translate into an early harvest, which lends itself to a nice window for fall application before the winter descends," Goldman said in a report.
Furthermore, the strong condition of the 2010 crop raised the likelihood of some nutrient depletion, triggering "robust" fertilizer demand.
However, with wholesalers unwilling to stock up significantly after suffering big losses on expensive inventories over the last two years, and outlooks for sowings and farm revenues steady, an autumn recovery in fertilizer prices would prove muted.
Potash prices would recover from an average of $358 per tonne for the July-to-September period, the lowest since the first quarter of 2008, to $362 per tonne.
And longer term, the "extremely competitive" potash market faced potential "oversupply" around 2014, as fresh capacity comes online, while a huge Saudi Arabian project would provide "some pressure" to phosphate prices, helping limit the chances of a further leg to their recovery.
Canada's 2010/11 Grain/Oilseed Ending Stocks Down: Ag Canada ...
WINNIPEG, MB, Jul 09, 2010 (Resource News International via COMTEX) -- Ending stocks of Canada`s grain and oilseed crops at the termination of the 2010/11 (Aug/Jul) crop year will be lower than what was projected in May and will be well below the level forecast for 2009/10, according to updated supply/demand tables from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's market analysis division released late on July 8. Ending stocks of the eight major grains and oilseeds in 2010/11 were forecast at 9.940 million metric tons. This compares with the May 5 projection of 12.009 million tons and the 2009/10 carryover estimate of 14.395 million. Production of the eight major grains and oilseeds in 2010/11 was pegged at 56.545 million tons. This compares with the May output forecast of 62.925 million and the 65.144 million seen in 2009/10. The eight major grains and oilseeds include: canola, flaxseed, soybeans, wheat, oats, barley, corn and rye.
In 2010/11, Canadian producers increased the areas seeded to canola, soybeans, spring wheat, oats, and corn and decreased the areas seeded to durum, barley, rye and flaxseed from 2009/10, based on the recent survey results from Statistics Canada. However, the actual areas seeded may differ significantly from the survey because of the extreme wet conditions in Manitoba, Alberta and especially Saskatchewan in May and June.
Ag Canada said excess moisture has prevented many producers from completing their seeding and fields which had already been seeded have been damaged. Abandonment is expected to be significantly above normal and average yields are forecast to be below normal due to extreme wet conditions and cool temperatures across western Canada.
Total exports of the eight major grains and oilseeds in the 2010/11 crop year were projected at 29.025 million tons. This was down significantly from the 31.478 million tons estimated in May and compares with the 2009/10 forecast of 32.633 million.
Total domestic usage of the various grains and oilseeds for the 2010/11 crop year was estimated at 35.058 million tons. This was down from the May projection of 36.510 million tons and compares with the current 2009/10 estimate of 36.223 million.
July 8 estimates for Canadian 2010/11 and 2009/10 grain and oilseed supply and demand. Domestic usage numbers include food and industrial use as well as feed, waste, and dockage. In million metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
Pasted from <http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/5/0/142214905.html>
Wheat hits fresh highs, after cut to EU crop hopes ...
Wheat prices soared 6% in London and Paris to their highest for nearly two years after Strategie Grains said that poor weather had cost European Union farmers their hopes of raising soft wheat production this year. The influential analysis group slashed by 3.6m tonnes to 129.5m tonnes its forecast for the crop, leaving it below last year's 129.8m-tonne result despite an increase in sowings.
Many analysts had hoped that the EU would at least beat last year's result, thanks to greater plantings. The US Department of Agriculture last week pegged the region's overall wheat harvest coming in more than 3m tonnes high than 2009's. The revision, the latest in a series of downgrades to crops from Canada to Western Australia, came as Ukraine confirmed it was also cutting estimates for its harvest again.
And worries continue to mount over the drought-afflicted Kazakh and Russian crops, which Informa Economics downgraded late on Wednesday.
The revisions "put fuel on the fires" of price rallies, US Commodities said.
Pasted from <http://www.agrimoney.com/news/wheat-hits-fresh-highs-after-cut-to-eu-crop-hopes--1983.html>
Canadian Federation of Independent Business ‘s (CFIB’s)
Agricultural Business Barometer in Saskatchewan ...
http://www.cfib-fcei.ca/cfib-documents/AgriBarometer-201006.pdf
Exchange Prices ~ Closing prices - Friday July 16, 2010 (compared to the previous week)
Barley – Price per MT (divide by 45.93 to get bu price)
CBOT Wheat – Price per Bushel
CBOT Corn
Oct-10
156.50
0.00
Sep-10
5.872
UP
.492
Sep-10
3.946
UP
.112
Dec-10
156.50
0.00
Dec-10
6.160
UP
.496
Dec-10
4.072
UP
.120
Mar-11
156.50
0.00
Mar-11
6.366
UP
.452
Mar-11
4.176
UP
.106
May-11
156.50
May-11
6.470
May-11
4.246
Quote of the Week: Never mistake knowledge for wisdom. One helps you make a living, the other helps you make a life. ~ Sandra Carey
Joke for the Week: How Does a Person Decide Who to Marry?
- "You flip a nickel, and heads means you stay with him and tails means you try the next one." Kally, age 9
- "You got to find somebody who likes the same stuff. Like if you like sports, she should like it that you like sports, and she should keep the chips and dip coming." Allan, age 10
- "No person really decides before they grow up who they're going to marry. God decides it all way before, and you got to find out later who you're stuck with." Kirsten, age 10
Concerning the Proper Age to Get Married
-"Twenty-three is the best age because you know the person FOREVER by then!" Cam, age 10
-"No age is good to get married at.... You got to be a fool to get married!" Freddie, age 6
How Can a Stranger Tell if Two People are Married?
-"Married people usually look happy to talk to other people." Eddie, age 6
-"You might have to guess based on whether they seem to be yelling at the same kids." Derrick, age 8
What Do You Think Your Mom and Dad Have in Common?
-"Both don't want no more kids." Lori, age 8
What Do Most People Do on a Date?
-"Dates are for having fun, and people should use them to get to know each other. Even boys have something to say if you listen long enough." Lynnette, age 8
-"On the first date, they just tell each other lies, and that usually gets them interested enough to go for a second date." Martin, age 10
What the Children Would Do on a First Date That Was Turning Sour
-"I'd run home and play dead. The next day I would call all the newspapers and make sure they wrote about me in all the dead columns." Craig, age 9
When is It Okay to Kiss Someone?
-"When they're rich!" Pam, age 7
-"The law says you have to be eighteen, so I wouldn't want to mess with that." Curt, age 7
-"The rule goes like this: If you kiss someone, then you should marry them and have kids with them.... It's the right thing to do." Howard, age 8The Great Debate: Is It Better to Be Single or Married?
-"It's better for girls to be single but not for boys. Boys need somebody to clean up after them!" Anita, age 9
-"Single is better ... for the simple reason that I wouldn't want to change no diapers... Of course, if I did get married, I'd figure something out. I'd just phone my mother and have her come over for some coffee and diaper-changing." Kirsten, age 10
What Advice Do You Have for a Young Couple About to Be Married?
-"The first thing I'd say to them is: 'Listen up, youngins ... I got something to say to you. Why in the heck do you wanna get married, anyway?'"Craig, age 9
What Promises Do a Man and a Woman Make When They Get Married?
-"A man and a woman promise to go through sickness and illness and diseases together." Marlon, age 10
How to Make a Marriage Work
-"Tell your wife that she looks pretty even if she looks like a truck." Ricky, age 7
How Would the World Be Different if People Didn't Get Married?
- "There sure would be a lot of kids to explain, wouldn't there?" Kelvin, age 8 -
"You can be sure of one thing - the boys would come chasing after us just the same as they do now!" Roberta, age 7One More: Harry asked his wife: Did your leave a tip for the boy who delivers our paper?
His wife replies: Yes, dear. I put some of it in the bushes, some of it on the roof, and some of it in the front yard.A Story for the Week: Giving Up the Good "Now" for a Better "Later"
There are five birds on a telephone wire. Two decide to fly south. How many are left?
No, it’s not three; it’s five. Deciding to fly south and actually flying south are two ifferent things. The life lesson is that you’ll never get where you want to go until you point yourself in the right direction, jump off the wire, and start flapping your wings.
To justify my unseemly size, I often tell people, “I’d like to be thin – especially when I’m not hungry. The problem is, when I’m hungry or tempted by a donut, I make excuses or rationalize by drinking a Diet Coke to offset the donut.”Actually, I’ve been pretty good lately and have lost 30 pounds – but it’s never easy. Every single day I have to point myself in the direction I want to go and jump off that wire.
Giving up
In the end, it’s not my goals that determine the quality of my life; it’s my actions. When there’s a conflict between what I want now and what I want for the future, the word “later” seems so much more attractive than “now” – but it’s not a good life strategy.
I love donuts, but I’ve never had one that was so good that the pleasure lasted for more than a few moments.
The key to a happy and healthy life is to resist urges and impulses for momentary pleasures that sabotage long-term goals. Lots of things that feel good aren’t good for us, and lots of things that are fun won’t make us happy.
Disclaimer Statement: The information in this document provided by Newco Grain Ltd is for informational purposes only. This document includes facts, views and opinions, such being deemed of interest to the intended audience. Information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is in no way guaranteed. Newco Grain Ltd. assumes no liability for any marketing decisions or actions taken in reliance thereon.
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