Newco NewsMarch 5, 2010
Published by
Newco Grain Ltd.
Box 717
Coaldale, Alberta
T1M 1M6Phone 403-345-3335
Fax 403-345-2040
Toll Free 1-800-661-2312
Bentley office 1-877-748-2810
Need to know Lethbridge cash barley price? Call us 1-800-661-2312
Road Bans – starting in March …
Along with spring weather come road bans. The following links will take you the respective government transportation web pages with details of the restrictions.
Aberta –
http://www.transportation.alberta.ca/522.htm
Saskatchewan –
http://www.highways.gov.sk.ca/special-weights/
Manitoba –
http://www.gov.mb.ca/mit/srr/index.html
A few snippets from Grain Word …
Edward Greenspon, former editor-in-chief of the Globe and Mail, cautioned the Grain World audience that although Canada depends heavily on access to the U.S. market, the historic description of the two countries having the "longest undefended border in the world" is a modern myth. Half of Canada's GDP is generated through its economic relationship with the United States, yet the shared border is thickening. "It is now the most fortified border," he said, noting that even though France and Germany have engaged each other in three major wars, trade flows more freely between those two countries than it does between Canada and the U.S.
Daryll E. Ray, an agricultural economist with the University of Tennessee, said the benefits of freer trade for farmers are oversold -- namely because of the assumption that agriculture responds in the same way as other commodities to the laws of supply, demand and production efficiency. It doesn't. Countries might be content to depend on imported electronics, but most are not interested in becoming food-dependent. Even when they sign trade deals, ways are found to protect their domestic industries.
Ray – con’t - The traditional agricultural exporters are being challenged by new production powerhouses. The area that could be brought into production in Brazil -- without cutting any trees -- exceeds the total crop area in the U.S. This area can grow two or three crops a year, instead of just one, and with less fertilizer, too. In a free trade environment, these new players would hold the comparative advantage. "
US Corn exports from 1980 -2009 …
Since 1980, world corn exports have remained essentially flat with 3.2 billion bushels traded in 1980 and 3.3 billion bushels traded in the 2009 crop year. During this same period, the production of corn in the world has nearly doubled growing from 16.1 billion bushels to 31.4 billion bushels today. As a result, the share of corn production that is exported has dropped from 19.6 percent in 1980 to 10.6 percent in 2009.
Turning to the US, corn exports reached 2.39 billion bushels in 1980 (Fig. 2). From that point corn exports fell before reaching 2.37 billion bushels in 1989. Another peak, 2.23 billion bushels was reached in the 1995 crop year. The most recent peak in 2007 reached 2.44 billion bushels, 50 million bushels above the level reached 27 years earlier. Looking at the red solid line in the graph, it becomes abundantly apparent that, like with the world, US corn exports have been in a flat pattern for the last 29 years. Over that same period, the value of exports (blue dashed line) has varied from a farmgate value low price of $2.09 billion in 1986 to a projected $7.7 billion in the 2009 crop year. In making this calculation we used the season average price received by farmers because any value added beyond the farmgate does not accrue to farmers.
In figure 3, it can be seen that the farmgate value of US corn exports (dashed blue line) is closely related to the price (solid red line). That means that export levels can stay the same or increase and the value of production can fall as long as the price falls faster than exports increase.
Over the past thirty years there has been little recognition that the world market for corn exports is relatively flat, with variations due to production fluctuations in the countries of our importing customers and export competitors. Another important factor, though seldom discussed, is the increase in corn production over time in the countries that consume it. While US farmers have repeatedly been promised increases in corn exports to be used to produce meat for a growing middle class in other countries, many those countries have chosen to grow all or much of their own grain, resulting in a flat export market. Like in the US, other countries do not want to become dependent upon imports to feed their people. They would prefer to import only when their production falls short of domestic needs. That may not be what farmers want to hear but neither should they want to hear only the parts of export stories that, in isolation, paint unrealistic pictures.
From - PolicyPennings by Dr. Daryll E. Ray Article Number 500 http://www.agpolicy.org/weekcol/500.html
India to grow high-yielding wheat that needs less water …
NEW DELHI (Dow Jones)--India is planning to cultivate a high-yielding wheat crop that requires half the water needed by present varieties, a top official with state-run Indian Agricultural Research Institute said Tuesday.
The move comes after one of the worst droughts in nearly four decades last year which cut the output of summer-sown crop.
The new varieties are likely to be first introduced in low-productivity areas including the eastern states of Bihar and West Bengal, parts of the northern state of Uttar Pradesh and central state of Madhya Pradesh, IARI director H.S. Gupta told reporters at a conference.
India, the world's second largest wheat producer, can hope to raise its annual output by 14 million metric tons by 2013 by using the new varieties from the current annual output of about 80 million tons, he added.
Pasted from <http://www.agriculture.com/ag/futuresource/FutureSourceStoryIndex.jhtml?&page=story&id=82579>
China wheat estimates '8.5m tonnes too high …
Widely-used estimates of China's corn and wheat production may be a total of 13.5m tonnes too high thanks to data distortions encouraged by an internal subsidy regime, US officials have said.
US government attaches in Beijing have slashed their estimate of the 2009-10 wheat harvest in China, the world's biggest producing country, to 106m tonnes, highlighting instead the damage to yields caused by drought, disease and late rains. The figure is 8.5m tonnes – the equivalent of Argentina's wheat production - lower than the estimate in the US Department of Agriculture's benchmark global crop supply and demand report, which takes into account official Beijing data
The discrepancies reflect a subsidy programme which pays provinces by reported production, the attaches said, restating a warning issued last year over the accuracy of official Chinese crop data.
"To gain more allocation of financial aid from the central government, provincial government authorities are occasionally tempted to overstate their grain output in a given year even if the crop was impacted by adverse weather," the briefing said.
Pasted from <http://www.agrimoney.com/news/china-wheat-estimates-8.5m-tonnes-too-high--1432.html>
Brazil …
If it hasn't happened yet, Brazil will soon jump over Canada to become the world's third-largest agricultural exporter, after the European Union and the United States. For the past decade, Brazil's agricultural exports have been soaring at about 10 per cent a year, compared to about 3 per cent for Canada. With China now Brazil's largest market for those products, and the Chinese willing to pay handsomely, the exports have produced a windfall for Brazil's economy. Brazil has vast tracts of farmland, a temperate climate that can, in some cases, allow production of three crops a year, and forests that grow trees much, much faster than cold places such as Canada. The result: Brazil is the world's leading exporter of sugar, chicken, beef, coffee, tobacco, orange juice and soy. It's fourth in cotton and pork. It also has huge amounts of arable land yet to be exploited
Nature has also favoured the country in producing renewable energy. Whereas China and India are short of water, Brazil has it in abundance. Brazil gets about 15 per cent of its power from hydro, and 30 per cent from sugar-based ethanol, which is much more energy-efficient and climate friendly than ethanol produced from corn, as in Canada.
Pasted from <http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/great-assets-so-why-hasnt-brazil-done-better/article1481624/>
Exchange Prices ~ Closing prices - Friday March 5, 2010 (compared to the previous week)
Barley – Price per MT (divide by 45.93 to get bu price)
CBOT Wheat – Price per Bushel
CBOT Corn
Mar-10
144.00
DOWN
2.50
Mar -10
4.822
DOWN
.132
Mar-10
3.646
DOWN
0.134
May 10
148.00
DOWN
2.50
May-10
4.934
DOWN
.258
May-10
3.754
DOWN
0.136
Jul-10
148.00
DOWN
2.50
Jul-10
5.056
DOWN
.256
Jul-10
3.864
DOWN
0.132
Oct-10
148.00
DOWN
2.50
Sep-10
3.950
DOWN
0.110
Quote of the Week:
I don't measure a man's success by how high he climbs but how high he bounces when he hits bottom.
General George S. Patton
Joke of the Week:
If you've ever worked for a boss who reacts before getting the facts and thinking things through, you will love this!
Arcelor-Mittal Steel, feeling it was time for a shake-up, hired a new CEO. The new boss was determined to rid the company of all slackers.
On a tour of the facilities, the CEO noticed a guy leaning against a wall. The room was full of workers and he wanted to let them know that he meant business. He asked the guy, "How much money do you make a week?"
A little surprised, the young man looked at him and said, "I make $ 400 a week. Why?"
The CEO said, "Wait right here." He walked back to his office, came back in two minutes, and handed the guy $1,600 in cash and said, "Here's four weeks' pay, now GET OUT and don't come back."
Feeling pretty good about himself, the CEO looked around the room and asked, "Does anyone want to tell me what that goof-ball did here?"
From across the room a voice said, "Pizza delivery guy from Domino's."One More: It was the first day of basketball practice at Wingate high school in Brooklyn, N.Y. Coach Jack Kaminer handed a ball to each player. "Fellas," he said, "I want you to practice shooting from the spots you might expect to be in during the game."
The No. 12 sub immediately sat down on the bench and began arcing the ball toward the basket.A Story for the Week: Finding God in the Park
Abe was fiercely independent, even at age 85, but after a mild stroke his son insisted he move in with him. Abe missed going to the park near his old apartment, and one Saturday he set out to find it.
When he became disoriented, he asked a young boy named Timmy where the park was. Timmy said he’d like to take him there, but he didn’t have time because he was looking for God. He said he needed to talk to Him about why his parents were getting a divorce.
“Maybe God’s in the park,” the old man said. “I’d like to talk to Him, too, about why He’s made me useless.” And so they set off together to find God.
At the park, Timmy began to cry about the divorce, and Abe lovingly held his face in both hands and looked him straight in the eyes. “Timmy, I don’t know why bad things happen, but I know it wasn’t because of you. I know you’re a good boy and your parents love you and you’ll be okay.”
Timmy gave Abe a big hug and said, “I’m so glad I met you. Thanks. I think I can go now.”
From across the street, Timmy’s mother saw them hug and approached her son in a worried voice. “Who was that old man?”“I think he’s God,” Timmy said.
“Did he say that?” she demanded.
“No, but when he touched me and told me I’m going to be okay, I felt really better. Only God can do that.”When Abe got home, his son asked in a scolding voice, “Where were you?”
“I was in the park with God.”
“Really? What makes you think you were with God?”“Because He sent me a boy who needed me, and when the boy hugged me, I felt God telling me I wasn’t useless anymore.”
This is Michael Josephson reminding you that character counts.
Disclaimer Statement: The information in this document provided by Newco Grain Ltd is for informational purposes only. This document includes facts, views and opinions, such being deemed of interest to the intended audience. Information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is in no way guaranteed. Newco Grain Ltd. assumes no liability for any marketing decisions or actions taken in reliance thereon.
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